It's hardly news that Broadway is now less than welcoming to new drama. The 2004-2005 Broadway season produced only five new plays: "Democracy," "Gem of the Ocean," "Brooklyn Boy," "Doubt," and "The Pillowman."
Of course, there could have been a few more had certain rules of Tony eligibility not been altered in recent years. There was first the question of whether or not Billy Crystal's solo show "700 Sundays" would qualify as a new play, but it was ruled a special event. More significantly, the season welcomed several plays that were new to Broadway but had previously been mounted off-Broadway or in regional theatres. These would include Reckless, Sight Unseen, Twelve Angry Men, and Steel Magnolias.
It was not so long ago that such plays would have been deemed eligible to compete in the Tonys as new plays, simply because they had never been previously staged on Broadway. This was the case with True West, The House of Blue Leaves, and Buried Child, all first mounted off-Broadway but all competing in the Tonys as new plays. But in the last few seasons, those involved came up with a new definition of such works as "classics," plays familiar from their previous mountings in New York and around the country and thus no longer "new." So Reckless. Sight Unseen. Twelve Angry Men and presumably Steel Magnolias will all be considered revivals in terms of the Tonys.
Of the season's five eligible plays, only two --Doubt and The Pillowman-- will still be running at Tony time, and both are guaranteed nominations. And in spite of its commercial failure and the feeling that the Broadway mounting was inferior to the National Theatre version, surely Democracy will get a nod. Which leaves one available slot, for either Gem of the Ocean or Brooklyn Boy. Given August Wilson's reputation, the slot is likely to go to Gem, with the worthy Brooklyn Boy perhaps omitted.
And which of the plays will be the victor? John Patrick Shanley's Doubt appeared to be the sure winner until The Pillowman opened. Both received virtually unanimous praise. But it's likely that the homegrown Doubt --Shanley's first play to make it to Broadway-- will be the winner, even if The Pillowman may be the more daring of the two works.
Moving on to the category of featured actress and actor in a musical, one name seems to stand out in the female category. That is, of course, Sara Ramirez, assumed by many to be the front runner for the Tony for featured actress in a musical for her performance in Spamalot. But who will fill the other four slots of the category?
Joanna Gleason is billed above the title at Dirty Rotten Scoundrels but is correctly competing in the featured category and looks likely for a nomination. At least one of the ladies from The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee seems guaranteed a slot. Celia Keenan-Bolger may have the edge, but that's not to discount Deborah S. Craig or Sarah Saltzberg. Chitty Chitty Bang Bang has the droll Baroness Bomburst of Jan Maxwell. From Little Women, there's Maureren McGovern, who scores with her two big numbers.
That could take care of the category, but let's mention some other possibilities. Although Brooklyn doesn't look like a strong contender in most categories, a nomination is possible for Eden Espinosa, who has been rocking the rafters with her high-powered vocals since September. And Brooklyn also has the attitude-laden Miss Paradice of Ramona Keller.
The Light in the Piazza has the delicate daughter of Kelli O'Hara in a role played in pre-New York mountings by Celia Keenan-Bolger. There's Sharon Wilkins of All Shook Up. That show also has a featured leading lady in Jenn Gambatese, although it's likely that she will be competing in the leading-actress category. And there are Janine LaManna and Kyra DaCosta in Sweet Charity. LaManna's role won Bebe Neuwirth a featured Tony in '86.
Turning to the men in the featured-musical category, the front runner would appear to be Dan Fogler, for his breakout turn in Spelling Bee. That show also has possible candidates in Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Jose Llana.
Playing opposite Joanna Gleason, Gregory Jbara is billed above the title at Dirty Rotten Scoundrels. But that show has two obvious male-lead candidates in John Lithgow and Norbert Leo Butz, so Jbara is logically competing in the featured category, where he's a potent contender.
While the leading men of Spamalot David Hyde Pierce, Tim Curry, Hank Azaria are billed below the title, they have been bumped up to compete in the leading category. But Spamalot still offers strong featured candidates in Christopher Sieber, Michael McGrath, and Christian Borle.
Although it's the leading male role, Denis O'Hare is billed below the title at Sweet Charity, and the role of neurotic accountant Oscar Lindquist won a featured Tony for Michael Rupert in the '86 revival. There's Matthew Morrison, playing the young romantic hero in The Light in the Piazza; the Baron Bomburst of Marc Kudisch in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang; and Roger Bart's slave in The Frogs, if anyone remembers. All Shook Up offers several possibilities, although one assumes that leading man Cheyenne Jackson, billed below the title, will be bumped up to compete in the lead category.